In 2018, the global installed capacity of photovoltaics reached 104GW, of which 44GW (new year -17.0%) was installed in China, and 60GW (+30.4%) in overseas markets. The overseas market was market-oriented and decentralized. Looking forward to 2019, the reduction of subsidies in the traditional markets of the United States and Japan, the cancellation of MIP in the European market, and the reduction of the import tariff rate imposed by the Indian market on China's export battery components are expected to drive the growth of relevant market installed capacity. According to the statistics of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the cost of photovoltaic systems has been decreasing at an average annual rate of 10% in the past decade, and the economics of photovoltaic power generation has gradually emerged. We believe that the large-scale parity online market in the domestic market is expected to be realized in the second half of 2020; the traditional installed countries and regions in the overseas market will shift from subsidies to bidding, and emerging markets will achieve market-oriented bidding with good lighting resources. We believe that the global PV market enters the long-term boom interval. The demand for photovoltaic equipment in the middle reaches will increase.
Double-sided ratio increases the demand for glass
The double-sided power generation technology is compatible with P-type and N-type technical routes, and basically does not require production line modification costs. In the first half of 2018, the two-way components of the front-runner project bidding accounted for more than 50%. Under different ground conditions, the power generation gain can reach 8%-30%, which can effectively lower the system cost and the electricity cost. According to the statistics of China's photovoltaic industry, it is estimated that the proportion of double-sided components will reach 20% and 30% respectively in 2019 and 2020. According to the calculation of 120GW new PV installed capacity and 20% double-sided components, the demand for photovoltaic glass is 22,000 tons/ On the day, double-sided components increase the demand for photovoltaic glass by about 10%.
Environmental protection, technology, scale and customer stickiness to create a glass faucet and a strong moat
In 2017, the Ministry of Environmental Protection's sewage permitting mechanism was officially launched, requiring 13 key industry-related companies including flat glass to obtain a sewage permit to produce. As of March 2019, the glass-related industries issued a total of 239 emission permits, flat glass. The number of issued is 150, of which the number of issued in 2017 is close to 90%. The PV glass segment has a high degree of industry concentration. In 2018, the industry CR5 is about 79.6%, and CR2 is about 52.4%. It is expected that by the end of 2019, the industry CR5 will further increase to 80.2%, and the CR2 increase will further increase to 55.2%. Leading enterprises have accumulated rich scale in production capacity, production technology and customer resources. The gross profit margin and financing costs are more advantageous than those of second-tier enterprises. We believe that the photovoltaic glass faucet is expected to grow with the photovoltaic industry by virtue of the track advantage.